DC Autonomous Vehicle Delay Dashboard
The Delay
A timeline of DC's autonomous vehicle regulatory failure
The Data
Waymo's safety record applied to DC
DC Traffic Fatalities (2019–2025)
* 2025: NSC estimate; 2026: projected from YTD
Waymo Safety Reductions (Peer-Reviewed)
Applied to DC (annual, based on 2024)
1.5% effective VMT share = DC ride-hail VMT (~6.9%, Fehr & Peers) × observed Waymo rideshare penetration in SF (~22%).
Source: Kusano et al. (2024) — 85% fewer any-injury-reported crashes over 7.1M autonomous miles
Source: Kusano et al. (2025) — 85% fewer suspected serious injury+ crashes, 79% fewer any-injury-reported crashes over 56.7M miles
Source: Swiss Re / Waymo (2024) — Waymo vehicles had zero bodily injury claims vs. human baseline
Ride-Hail Safety Comparison
Incident rates across ride-hail providers and national baseline
| Provider | Metric | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| Waymo | Serious injuries / million miles | 0.02 |
| Uber | Accidents / million miles | 0.45 |
| Lyft | Accidents / million miles | 0.38 |
| National avg. | Fatalities / 100M VMT | 1.35 |
Methodologies differ across these sources. Waymo data uses police-reported incidents matched to location baselines; Uber/Lyft figures are self-reported. Direct comparison should be interpreted with caution.
Sources: Kusano et al., Traffic Injury Prevention (2025), 56.7M miles · Uber Safety Report (2021–2022) · Lyft Safety Report (2021–2022) · NHTSA FARS
Meanwhile, Elsewhere
Months from first Waymo testing to commercial ride-hail service
Methodology & Sources
Full transparency on data, assumptions, and limitations
How the counter works
The live counter estimates preventable deaths by interpolating DC's cumulative traffic fatalities since January 1, 2023 (when the DDOT safety study was already overdue) and applying Waymo's peer-reviewed safety reduction factor.
DC fatality data comes from MPD / Vision Zero crash reports: 2023 (52 deaths), 2024 (52 deaths), 2025 (25, NSC estimate), 2026 (32, projected from 8 YTD). Note: NHTSA FARS figures for DC differ slightly due to the federal 30-day rule and different inclusion criteria. Deaths are interpolated linearly within each year to produce a real-time estimate.
Estimate methodology
The headline figure applies an 85% any-injury-reported crash reduction to 1.5% of vehicle miles traveled. The 85% comes from Kusano et al. (2024), which analyzed 7.1M rider-only miles. A subsequent 2025 study covering 56.7M miles found a 79% reduction in any-injury-reported crashes (95% CI: 71–85%) and 85% fewer suspected serious injury+ crashes (95% CI: 39–99%).
The headline estimate uses an illustrative 1.5% effective VMT-share assumption. This is derived by multiplying DC ride-hail's share of city-core vehicle miles traveled (about 6.9%, Fehr & Peers, 2019) by a benchmark Waymo share of the rideshare market (about 22%, based on San Francisco at end of 2024; data from YipitData).
Key assumptions & limitations
- The 85% reduction comes from Kusano et al.'s analysis of 7.1 million autonomous miles. Real-world deployment at scale could differ.
- Fatality reductions are extrapolated from injury crash data. Fatality-specific reductions may be higher or lower than the overall injury crash reduction.
- The 1.5% effective VMT share is derived from DC ride-hail VMT (~6.9%, Fehr & Peers 2019) multiplied by observed Waymo rideshare penetration in San Francisco (~22% by end of 2024, YipitData).
- These figures represent potential lives saved, not certainties. AV technology continues to improve, and real-world results will depend on deployment specifics.
- DC's road conditions, driver behavior, and infrastructure differ from cities where Waymo data was collected (primarily Phoenix and San Francisco).
Data sources
- NHTSA FARS Fatality Analysis Reporting System — national traffic fatality data
- DC Vision Zero District of Columbia traffic safety initiative and crash data
- Open Data DC DC government open data portal — crash and fatality datasets
- Kusano et al. (2024) Peer-reviewed study: 85% fewer any-injury-reported crashes in 7.1M Waymo miles
- Swiss Re / Waymo Insurance Study (2024) Zero bodily injury claims for Waymo fleet vs. human baseline
- B26-0323 — Autonomous Vehicle Deployment Act Proposed DC legislation to permit AV ride-hail deployment
- Fehr & Peers Ride-Hail VMT Study (2019) Ride-hail accounts for 1–13% of city-core VMT across major US cities (DC: 6.9%, SF: 12.8%)
- Kusano et al. (2025) — 56.7M Miles Updated peer-reviewed study: 85% fewer suspected serious injury+ crashes over 56.7M Waymo miles
- YipitData / App Economy Insights — Waymo SF Market Share Waymo reached ~22% of the San Francisco rideshare market by end of 2024 (YipitData via a16z)